Ebullio Capital Management LLP is pleased to announce that Miss Mimi Thoong has joined our Marketing and Client Solutions Group as an Associate. Mimi brings with her a great wealth of talent and experience and we are very pleased to have her join the team.
Ebullio Capital Management LLP announces that Miss Monica Kotzee’
has left her position with the Marketing and Client Solutions Group.
Miss Kotzee’ was one of our first employees and we are sad to see her
go. We wish Monica good luck and every success in her further career.
David Sutcliffe, Senior Commodity Trader at Ebullio Capital Management
today made a speech at the “Investing in Soft Commodities and
Agriculture Conference” in London. David spoke about his views on The World Coffee Market:
"The outlook for coffee production is very poor... Global coffee production is at full crank, excess capacity is non-existent.”
"Global consumption growth will continue at 2.5% per year and supply will be unable to meet this extra demand."
related disruptions to the Columbian harvest this year is just the
start. Weather related disruptions will become more common in the
coming years and we could see some extreme supply deficits very soon.”
Copper Rebounds in London on Speculation About Chinese Buying
By Claudia Carpenter
Copper rose from a two-week low in London on speculation China, the
world's largest consumer of the metal, is stepping up purchases.
Aluminium dropped to the lowest price in six years.
inventories in London Metal Exchange-monitored warehouses declined
1,125 metric tons, the most since Oct. 21. A tripling of stockpiles
contributed to copper's 60 percent slide in the past year. Today's drop
took place as metal was taken from South Korean and Singapore
warehouses that are closest to China.
"It's going to China," said Lars Steffensen, managing director of Southend-on-Sea, England-based Ebullio Capital Management LLP,
which has 3.6 percent of its $25 million invested in copper futures.
"This drop today is probably a good indication that we're getting to a
flattening of the relentless trend of more stock coming in."
for three-month delivery rose $34.50, or 1.1 percent, to $3,219.50 a
metric ton at 10:28 a.m. local time on the LME. It erased a drop as far
as $3,165 a ton, the lowest since Feb. 2.
interest in the metal on the LME has increased 1.5 percent this year,
signalling investor demand for copper, used in plumbing and electrical
wiring, as prices have risen 4.5 percent.
"We're betting that supply isn't going to be able to keep up with the growth that we envision in consumption," Steffensen
said, adding that Ebullio has been buying copper since December. While
prices may fall a further $1,000, there's scope for a gain of $6,000,
dropped $14, or 1.1 percent, to $1,316 a ton, the lowest since Oct. 14,
2002. U.S. and Canadian demand for the metal fell 16 percent from a
year earlier in December and slid
8.1 percent for all of 2008, the Aluminium Association Inc. said.
fell $5 to $1,105 a ton, and tin declined $50 to $10,750 a ton. Nickel
dropped $149 to $9,751 a ton, while lead lost $22 to $1,087 a ton.
Ebullio Capital Management LLP is pleased to announce that Mr Lee Barden
has joined our Operations and Admin Group as I.T Manager. Lee brings
with him a great wealth of talent and experience and we are very
pleased to have him join the team.
Commodities to benefit from reflation, tin to win and gold to reach new record high
By: Melanie Burton
commodity sector will benefit from reflation as governments print
currency to shore up their faltering economies, with tin to win and the
gold bubble to breach a new record high before it bursts, a leading
commodity trade hedge fund manager told TheBullionDesk.com.
large scale printing debases currencies world wide and the dollar goes
into free fall, hard assets such as commodities and ironically,
real-estate, will be the best means to hold value, manager of Ebullio
Commodity Fund Lars Steffensen told TheBullionDesk.com.
reflation trade is going to be commodities. Not just gold, but anything
that is tangible, because there is a serious danger that the American
dollar is going to suffer very badly," he said.
"Even if we have
another three years of recession, (commodity markets are) still going
to be very tradable -- it's a very volatile space to be in and as long
as the prices move, there will be money to be made for funds like
ourselves," he added.
Ebullio Commodity Fund
returned a whopping 133.64 percent last year and over nine percent in
December -- a time when the global credit crunch was wiping many hedge
funds off the map. The fund, which trades on supply and demand
pictures, currently manages around $25 million via futures, options and
the physical market. It launched at the beginning of 2008.
dollar is getting weaker. The first thing that people buy (to retain
value) before the other commodities will be gold," Steffensen said.
is one of around 40 markets Ebullio monitors, watching for "once in a
lifetime" trades across five commodity sectors -- it also watches base
metals, energy, agriculture, softs and livestock. As of last week,
roughly 70 percent of the fund's exposure was to metals and 30 percent
As the dollar collapses in the third quarter, gold
will be catapulted above $1,200 an ounce, expects Steffensen --
following which investors will stampede toward exits and gold will
plummet down to $800 an ounce. Since printing a new record high of
$1,032.60 an ounce March 17, 2008, gold for cash delivery plummeted
below $700 in late October, but has since steadily climbed higher to
$925 an ounce Wednesday.
"What we’re seeing now is unprecedented
-- the scale is unprecedented but the way things have moved -- we’ve
seen that before," said Steffensen, who has traded commodities for over
22 years, with 40 percent average returns annually since 1987.
basically look for prices that are either too high or prices that are
too low. We look for prices to be reached with heavy volume --
capitulation highs and capitulation lows, and then we get in," he added.
fund's tight risk policy has helped insure it from the fate of other
hedge funds -- only 25 percent of its assets are allocated at a time
with strict stop-loss points to ensure that no more than 2.5 percent of
the total asset allocation is exposed. Options are also bought to hedge
against severe adverse market reaction.
TIN, COPPER OUTLOOK BRIGHT, ALUMINIUM GLOOMY
the world, excluding China, reliant on stuttering Indonesian production
for tin supply and changes to European Union legislation set to ramp up
demand, tin has the brightest outlook of the LME metals. The ban of
lead in solder, a tin-lead mix used in electronics and in cans -- has
led to a surge in demand, said Steffensen.
As well, global
inventories remain low with producers having destocked for cash to
plump up end-of-the-year balance sheets. Under 9,000 tonnes, LME
inventories make up less than 10 days' worth of global demand -- by far
the least of any LME metal.
In contrast, dwindling demand for
aluminium due to the global economic downturn has led visible LME
stocks to soar -- which is likely to depress prices below $2,000 for
the next few years. This follows the precedent set during the fall of
the Soviet Union in the early 1990s when a lot of aluminium stock found
its way into LME storehouses in order to get financing, Steffensen said.
could basically not turn around anywhere in Rotterdam without seeing
piles and piles of aluminium -- they got special dispensation to store
it outside. It was everywhere," he said. "It probably took us 7-8 years
to run it down and now we’re getting it all over again."
far, LME stocks have surged to record highs above 2.9 million tonnes --
forcing aluminium prices to five-year lows last month near $1,316 a
tonne -- it was recently quoted at $1,406 a tonne on the London Metal
Exchange. Steffensen estimates another 2-3 million tonnes could be yet
"A lot of auminium has been tied up in long term
financing contracts, (which) would be revolving but a lot haven't been
renewed. Again it depends on the credit crunch and the banks, but a lot
of that metal has now flooded on to the market. It was always there but
it was’t always visible," he said. "I think that visibility is weighing
on the market."
Copper is a different story, with constrained
production, declining ore grades and rampant demand from China likely
to keep the market in tigher balance.
"If you see copper below
$2,800 a tonne ...you should fill your boots because it’s going to be
the last time it will have a '2' in front of it for a long time --
until it hits $20,000," Steffensen said. "It will take a long time but it will happen -- there's just not enough copper in the world."
successful trade is the zinc/lead switch, where hedge funds who have
taken a shine to lead distort the historical ratio --where zinc costs
twice lead's price per tonne.
"The reason for that is not
fundamentals, it’s just that some very big hedge funds out there have
fallen in love with lead, they trade that and not really zinc, so when
they come to buy it, they whack it out of skew," Steffensen said.
Ebullio Commodity Fund opened to investors last October, and will launch The Ebullio Power & Emissions Fund this quarter.
London bullion market should align with LME
By: Melanie Burton
London bullion market can help shore up London's capacity as a key
financial centre which has been shaken by numerous banking sector
collapses, by aligning with the London Metal Exchange (LME), a leading
commodity hedge fund manager said.
"There’s going to be
consolidation in the futures industry and it will make London stronger
as a financial centre if (metals market processes) stay a British
entity," said Lars Steffensen of commodity hedge fund Ebullio which returned over 130 percent last year.
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is currently looking at ways
to mitigate credit risk, such as introducing clearing for gold and
silver over-the-counter forward transactions. The credit crisis has
increased the risk of default and the level of counterparty risk LBMA
members have had to take on in recent months, since the collapse of
Lehman Brothers last September intensified the credit crisis.
far, LBMA members have been presented with three options -- US-based
CME Group, European NYSE Euronext and London-based clearing house
LCH.Clearnet -- and the LME has also offered its services.
think the LME should consolidate the London metals markets. I think the
LME would be more ideally placed in terms of historical, but also...for
synergy reasons to incorporate the LBMA because the LME understands the
prompt date system," Steffensen told TheBullionDesk.com.
LME every day between spot and three months can be traded and forward
contracts are only settled when they become prompt and expire. In
contrast, monthly futures contracts, such as those found on NYSE
Euronext and COMEX, are payable daily against a forward date -- this is
said to encourage more speculation.
"Also the LME has a
structure, they have the tradition, they have the electronic trading
platform. You know, bullion would be ideal to put on Select (the LME's
electronic trading system), so I think for all those reasons it would
make more sense for the LBMA to...commit to an alliance," he said.
which trades gold futures via the US-based COMEX exchange would happily
move its business to London if cleared futures or forward trading were
available, Steffensen said.
"I think there’s a lot of volume
that would go away from the NYMEX contract if the (London bullion
market) was bought up by the LME."
Article: The Guardian Newspaper
How Commodity business, worldwide economy crumbled in 2008
By: Pham-Duy Nguyen
“Cocoa has the best fundamentals of any commodities, except maybe tin,” Steffensen said. “They share a low-inventory story, straight deficits and limited ability for production increases, along with supply problems.”
Article: China Daily
Cocoa Investors enjoy sweet taste of success in ‘08
has good fundamentals – sell it at your peril,” said Lars Steffensen,
Managing Director of London-based commodities fund Ebullio Capital
Index: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15
Supply tightness drives cocoa higher
By: David Brough
LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - London cocoa futures rallied on investment fund buying on Tuesday, while coffee slipped on hedge selling in holiday-thinned volume.
London benchmark May cocoa futures surged to a 23-year high, basis second month, on fund and investor buying, dealers said.
"The fundamentals (in cocoa) look good," said Lars Steffensen, managing director of London-based commodities fund Ebullio Capital Management.
Dealers and analysts saw a tightening global supply helping to underpin prices in the medium term.
The Ebullio Commodity Fund was ranked 1st among commodity funds in the EuroHedge league table of year to date returns.
The Ebullio Commodity Fund also appeared in the Eurekahedge Global Hedgefund Top 10 for annualised returns in October.